Follow output, prices and jobs with their reporting periods visible.
Latest consecutive quarters; not a recession declaration.
US probability and Sahm-rule readings are not applied to this economy.
US headline GDP is annualized. Compare periods and units before comparing magnitudes.
Cards show the latest available observations. The history control changes all charts, tables and downloads. Indicators cover different periods; check each date.
Q2 2026 · Quarter over quarter · not annualized · seasonally adjusted
-0.21 pp versus Q1 2026
Real output growth. Two consecutive negative quarters meet a rule of thumb, not an official recession determination.
OECD via FRED. Retrieved 2026-10-01T07:27:21.515Z. Values may be revised.
| Period | Value (%) |
|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | 0.73 |
| Q2 2024 | 0.62 |
| Q3 2024 | 0.18 |
| Q4 2024 | 0.43 |
| Q1 2025 | 0.57 |
| Q2 2025 | 0.16 |
| Q3 2025 | 0.07 |
| Q4 2025 | 0.05 |
| Q1 2026 | 0.63 |
| Q2 2026 | 0.42 |
Aug 2026 · Year over year · all items · not seasonally adjusted
0.2 pp versus Jul 2026
Headline consumer price inflation. National baskets differ. Inflation is context, not a recession trigger.
Office for National Statistics. Retrieved 2026-10-01T07:27:21.515Z. Values may be revised.
| Period | Value (%) |
|---|---|
| Nov 2023 | 3.9 |
| Dec 2023 | 4 |
| Jan 2024 | 4 |
| Feb 2024 | 3.4 |
| Mar 2024 | 3.2 |
| Apr 2024 | 2.3 |
| May 2024 | 2 |
| Jun 2024 | 2 |
| Jul 2024 | 2.2 |
| Aug 2024 | 2.2 |
| Sep 2024 | 1.7 |
| Oct 2024 | 2.3 |
| Nov 2024 | 2.6 |
| Dec 2024 | 2.5 |
| Jan 2025 | 3 |
| Feb 2025 | 2.8 |
| Mar 2025 | 2.6 |
| Apr 2025 | 3.5 |
| May 2025 | 3.4 |
| Jun 2025 | 3.6 |
| Jul 2025 | 3.8 |
| Aug 2025 | 3.8 |
| Sep 2025 | 3.8 |
| Oct 2025 | 3.6 |
| Nov 2025 | 3.2 |
| Dec 2025 | 3.4 |
| Jan 2026 | 3 |
| Feb 2026 | 3 |
| Mar 2026 | 3.3 |
| Apr 2026 | 2.8 |
| May 2026 | 2.8 |
| Jun 2026 | 2.6 |
| Jul 2026 | 2.9 |
| Aug 2026 | 3.1 |
May 2026 · Share of labor force · seasonally adjusted
0 pp versus Apr 2026
Older observation. Check the publisher for a newer release.
Unemployment as a share of the labor force. National coverage and survey methods differ.
OECD via FRED. Retrieved 2026-10-01T07:27:21.515Z. Values may be revised.
| Period | Value (%) |
|---|---|
| Nov 2023 | 3.9 |
| Dec 2023 | 4.1 |
| Jan 2024 | 4.2 |
| Feb 2024 | 4.3 |
| Mar 2024 | 4.4 |
| Apr 2024 | 4.4 |
| May 2024 | 4.2 |
| Jun 2024 | 4.2 |
| Jul 2024 | 4.1 |
| Aug 2024 | 4.3 |
| Sep 2024 | 4.2 |
| Oct 2024 | 4.4 |
| Nov 2024 | 4.4 |
| Dec 2024 | 4.4 |
| Jan 2025 | 4.5 |
| Feb 2025 | 4.6 |
| Mar 2025 | 4.6 |
| Apr 2025 | 4.7 |
| May 2025 | 4.7 |
| Jun 2025 | 4.7 |
| Jul 2025 | 4.8 |
| Aug 2025 | 5 |
| Sep 2025 | 5.1 |
| Oct 2025 | 5.1 |
| Nov 2025 | 5.2 |
| Dec 2025 | 5.2 |
| Jan 2026 | 4.9 |
| Feb 2026 | 5 |
| Mar 2026 | 4.9 |
| Apr 2026 | 4.9 |
| May 2026 | 4.9 |
Quarterly real GDP growth is not annualized. Two negative consecutive quarters meet a common technical rule of thumb, but this is not an official recession declaration. Inflation is year-over-year price growth; unemployment measures labor-market conditions. National coverage, revisions and reporting lags differ.
No validated probability model has been integrated for this economy. The US model and Sahm-rule threshold are not transferred to other countries. The absence of a model is not a zero-percent risk estimate.
Automated sources are checked on opening and every five minutes while visible. Failed requests use dated saved observations. Canada and Australia inflation currently use two reviewed official release observations and require a reviewed update; their history is deliberately limited. Older observations are marked visibly. Values can be revised.