Today’s headlines. Lessons from history.
Explore what is happening, when something similar happened before, and what followed. Every comparison explains where history helps and where it differs.
A bigger paycheck can still buy less
The latest weekly-earnings report shows pay lagging prices. The 2021 squeeze and the changed comparison by 2023 explain why nominal gains, purchasing power, and recovery are different questions.
Read article →Production rose. Does that mean factories are booming?
September’s industrial-production increase shows why the mix matters. The 2019 post-strike rebound offers a lesson in separating a headline gain from a lasting trend.
Read article →When borrowing falls: what the latest credit report can tell us
August’s consumer-credit figures show revolving balances falling while total credit still grows. The post-2008 adjustment explains why the reason for a debt decline matters.
Read article →The Economy Did Not Grow Overnight: Why GDP Revisions Matter
A higher estimate of spring growth offers a lesson from 2015: new information can change our account of the economy without changing what already happened.
Read article →A Wider Overseas Deficit: What the Plaza Accord Can Teach Us
The latest U.S. current-account report opens a lesson about saving, investment and why exchange-rate changes can take years to reshape trade.
Read article →Housing Starts Slipped. Does That Make It 2006 Again?
August’s construction report offers a lesson in reading uncertain data. The housing downturn that began in 2006 shows why building activity matters—and why a single month cannot diagnose a financial crisis.
Read article →Strong Jobs, Hard Choices: What August’s Hiring Report Can Learn from 1995
August’s hiring rebound raises a familiar question: can economic strength coexist with contained inflation? The 1994–95 soft landing offers a useful comparison, with important limits.
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