World Economy · Learn with evidence
What happened next?
Keep the original analysis intact. Revisit the evidence after three and six months.
Strong Jobs, Hard Choices: What August’s Hiring Report Can Learn from 1995
Original publication: September 7, 2026
Original takeaway: August’s hiring rebound raises a familiar question: can economic strength coexist with contained inflation? The 1994–95 soft landing offers a useful comparison, with important limits.
3-month checkpoint · December 7, 2026
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
6-month checkpoint · March 7, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.