World Economy · Learn with evidence
What happened next?
Keep the original analysis intact. Revisit the evidence after three and six months.
A bigger paycheck can still buy less
Original publication: October 27, 2026
Original takeaway: The latest weekly-earnings report shows pay lagging prices. The 2021 squeeze and the changed comparison by 2023 explain why nominal gains, purchasing power, and recovery are different questions.
3-month checkpoint · January 27, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
6-month checkpoint · April 27, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
Production rose. Does that mean factories are booming?
Original publication: October 19, 2026
Original takeaway: September’s industrial-production increase shows why the mix matters. The 2019 post-strike rebound offers a lesson in separating a headline gain from a lasting trend.
3-month checkpoint · January 19, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
6-month checkpoint · April 19, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
When borrowing falls: what the latest credit report can tell us
Original publication: October 12, 2026
Original takeaway: August’s consumer-credit figures show revolving balances falling while total credit still grows. The post-2008 adjustment explains why the reason for a debt decline matters.
3-month checkpoint · January 12, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
6-month checkpoint · April 12, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
The Economy Did Not Grow Overnight: Why GDP Revisions Matter
Original publication: October 6, 2026
Original takeaway: A higher estimate of spring growth offers a lesson from 2015: new information can change our account of the economy without changing what already happened.
3-month checkpoint · January 6, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
6-month checkpoint · April 6, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
A Wider Overseas Deficit: What the Plaza Accord Can Teach Us
Original publication: September 28, 2026
Original takeaway: The latest U.S. current-account report opens a lesson about saving, investment and why exchange-rate changes can take years to reshape trade.
3-month checkpoint · December 28, 2026
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
6-month checkpoint · March 28, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
Housing Starts Slipped. Does That Make It 2006 Again?
Original publication: September 22, 2026
Original takeaway: August’s construction report offers a lesson in reading uncertain data. The housing downturn that began in 2006 shows why building activity matters—and why a single month cannot diagnose a financial crisis.
3-month checkpoint · December 22, 2026
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
6-month checkpoint · March 22, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
Strong Jobs, Hard Choices: What August’s Hiring Report Can Learn from 1995
Original publication: September 7, 2026
Original takeaway: August’s hiring rebound raises a familiar question: can economic strength coexist with contained inflation? The 1994–95 soft landing offers a useful comparison, with important limits.
3-month checkpoint · December 7, 2026
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.
6-month checkpoint · March 7, 2027
Review not yet published. We will examine subsequent data, revisions and whether the original comparison still helps. This date is a review target, not a forecast.