Follow output, prices and jobs with their reporting periods visible.
Checking public sources…
OUTPUT CHECKTwo-quarter rule not met
Latest consecutive quarters; not a recession declaration.
MODEL COVERAGENo probability model integrated
US probability and Sahm-rule readings are not applied to this economy.
COMPARISON BASISQuarterly GDP, not annualized
US headline GDP is annualized. Compare periods and units before comparing magnitudes.
Cards show the latest available observations. The history control changes all charts, tables and downloads. Indicators cover different periods; check each date.
Real GDP growth
Quarterly
0.7%
Q2 2026 · Quarter over quarter · not annualized · seasonally adjusted and calendar adjusted
0.6 pp versus Q1 2026
Real output growth. Two consecutive negative quarters meet a rule of thumb, not an official recession determination. EU-27 aggregate, not the euro area.
Source and 10 chart observations
Eurostat. Retrieved 2026-10-01T07:27:21.515Z. Values may be revised.
Quarterly real GDP growth is not annualized. Two negative consecutive quarters meet a common technical rule of thumb, but this is not an official recession declaration. Inflation is year-over-year price growth; unemployment measures labor-market conditions. National coverage, revisions and reporting lags differ.
This view covers the European Union’s 27-country aggregate, not the euro area. Aggregate growth can hide contractions in individual member countries. Inflation uses Eurostat’s HICP.
What about recession probability?
No validated probability model has been integrated for this economy. The US model and Sahm-rule threshold are not transferred to other countries. The absence of a model is not a zero-percent risk estimate.
Updates and coverage
Automated sources are checked on opening and every five minutes while visible. Failed requests use dated saved observations. Canada and Australia inflation currently use two reviewed official release observations and require a reviewed update; their history is deliberately limited. Older observations are marked visibly. Values can be revised.