Latest consecutive quarters; not a recession declaration.
LABOR WARNINGBelow Sahm threshold
-0.07 pp · Aug 2026
HISTORICAL MODEL0.76%
Recession probability for Jul 2026 · not a forward forecast.
Cards show the latest available observations. The history control changes all charts, tables and downloads. Indicators cover different periods; check each date.
Real GDP growth
Quarterly
2.2%
Q2 2026 · Quarter over quarter, annualized · seasonally adjusted
-0.3 pp versus Q1 2026
Saved source snapshot. Checking for updates… Retrieved 10/1/2026, 7:22:30 AM UTC.
Real output growth removes price changes. Two consecutive negative quarters meet a common rule of thumb, not the full US recession definition.
Source and 10 chart observations
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Retrieved 2026-10-01T07:22:30.708Z. Values may be revised.
Aug 2026 · Share of civilian labor force · seasonally adjusted
0 pp versus Jul 2026
Saved source snapshot. Checking for updates… Retrieved 10/1/2026, 7:22:30 AM UTC.
People without a job who are available and actively seeking work, plus those on temporary layoff, as a share of the labor force. Rising unemployment can indicate weakness.
Source and 33 chart observations
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved 2026-10-01T07:22:30.708Z. Values may be revised.
Aug 2026 · Real-time vintage series · seasonally adjusted
-0.04 pp versus Jul 2026
Saved source snapshot. Checking for updates… Retrieved 10/1/2026, 7:22:30 AM UTC.
The three-month average unemployment rate minus the lowest three-month average in the preceding 12 months. A reading of at least 0.50 percentage points triggers the rule; false signals are possible.
Source and 33 chart observations
Claudia Sahm via FRED. Retrieved 2026-10-01T07:22:30.708Z. Values may be revised.
Jul 2026 · Historical model estimate · not seasonally adjusted
0.2 pp versus Jun 2026
Saved source snapshot. Checking for updates… Retrieved 10/1/2026, 7:22:30 AM UTC.
Estimated probability of recession in the reported month, using employment, production, real income and sales. A smoothed estimate can revise with later evidence. This is not the chance of a recession in the next 12 months.
Source and 33 chart observations
Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger via FRED. Retrieved 2026-10-01T07:22:30.708Z. Values may be revised.
Smoothed recession probability · selected chart window
There is no single agreed probability. This tracker presents the Chauvet–Piger smoothed model estimate for its reported month alongside economic indicators. It does not average GDP, inflation and unemployment into an invented risk score or forecast.
Are we in a recession?
Two quarters of falling real GDP are a useful rule of thumb. In the United States, NBER assesses the depth, spread and duration of a decline across several measures. Inflation alone does not establish a recession, and a Sahm-rule trigger is a warning signal rather than an official declaration.
Sources are checked when you open this page, every five minutes while visible, and when you return to the tab. The server may reuse a response for five minutes. GDP is quarterly; the other series are monthly. Retrieval time is not a release date, and observations can lag or be revised. An older-observation warning is a freshness check, not a recession signal.
Charts use current available history, except the published real-time Sahm series. They do not reconstruct exactly what a reader knew at each historical date. Missing observations are not replaced with zero. When a live request fails, a saved snapshot is shown with its retrieval time and an outage notice.